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Zhonghui futures: on August 30, early evaluation of non-ferrous metal

by:AAG     2020-11-07


social inventories continue to binge regulations highs, short-term suppression to further increases in prices. And considering the steady progress was made in the production of actual production cuts will gradually appear and heating season limit production of strict enforcement of environmental protection, price increases, there is still a medium-term basis, and then another potentially bullish factor, self-provided power plant payment of networks and government-managed funds or booster aluminum prices will again rise, short-term price further new much to consider a correction approach; Shanghai zinc: according to the bureau of 15-year-old guidelines according to July refined zinc output from dropped sharply on June 6. 1-80000 tons, Output fell 2% in July, the aluminum bracket overhaul and the tight supply of raw materials on production sharply than previously expected, the influence of the downstream demand is relatively stable, social inventory and exchange inventories remained low, lead to the strengthening again in recent months. Affected by the recent spot inlet window open, aluminum bracket import zinc slightly into the relieve the tense situation of zinc is short of supply and demand in the domestic market, backwardation back slightly to 230 - 300 yuan/ton. Spot supply and demand tension caused by high premium push prices attenuation, the driving force of temporary weak prices is short. Disk hook: influenced by social inventory continues to boom, aluminium high consolidation, and considering the self-provided power plant payment of government-managed funds high uncertainty, aluminum bracket under the current market operation cost drive mechanism unobstructed; Shanghai zinc: the fourth batch of environmental supervision is started, the upper part of the mine match refinery shut down or shut down, or supply will drag the rest of August concentrate and zinc production. Show hidden when the global inventories are in absolute status, production rebound could be lost; refined zinc shortage or is expected to return. Short-term affected by national games held in tianjin area of galvanized enterprise production, restart and the limit of the time to be determined and recent advancements storehouse measures make the zinc price short-term cooling down. Policy Suggestions: Shanghai zinc, after the callback will include short; Shanghai aluminum old more appropriate underweight, aluminum bracket new stay after the callback into play.
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