Focus on Aluminum Fabrication & Solution Providing
u.s. casting sales to maintain course with 3.7% rise: growth in aluminum and ductile iron is forecast for the next two years, while gray iron and steel casting shipments are expected to decline.
5% is between 2005 and 14,615,000 tons.
The peak production of medium and heavy trucks and freight cars has stimulated an increase in shipments of black castings, however, it is expected that the decline in production in these market sectors will lead to a 1 drop in production of gray iron and steel castings by 2008. 7% and 11. 4%.
However, it is predicted that the shipments of cast iron castings will continue to grow by 0 in the next two years.
It\'s 5% in the long run.
Shipments of aluminum castings are expected to grow by 2% to 4 in 2007. 5% to 2008.
Imports are expected to keep domestic casting shipments to a minimum in many market sectors as they are expected to reach 3.
5 million tons in 2007.
Part of the reason is the rise in oil prices, which is expected to increase in the market for small passenger cars and in the import of cars, which will reduce the market share of domestic light vehicle manufacturers.
Due to the proposed fuel economy standard, more iron engine blocks, differential and suspension castings continue to be converted into aluminum in the light rail.
The interviews with casting end users and the analysis of the measurement economy forecast support an optimistic attitude towards the growth of casting demand in the next two years.
Sales for 35 billion are estimated at $2006 and are expected to increase to $37.
At $75 billion by 2008, it increased to $44 billion in 2016 (Fig. 1).
Shipments of metal castings are expected to decrease by 0.
3% to 14,572,000 in 2007, but an increase of 0.
Between 3% and 14,611,000 tons in 2008. [
Figure 1 slightly]
The higher growth rate of metal casting sales reflects a shift in product structure to a higher direction
Light metal castings on cars.
The following is the prediction of casting demand by main terminals
Metal Casting industry.
Total production of light vehicles in the United StatesS.
Including passenger cars and light trucks, it is expected to grow by 3% in 2007 and passenger car production by 10%.
At present, passenger car production accounts for 40% of the market sector, but this ratio may rise to 52% by 2016. Forecast--
By 2008, shipments of gray iron castings will drop to 926,000 tons per year, and decline at a long-term rate of 1% per year, reaching a low of 806,000 tons by 2012.
The average weight of each light vehicle is expected to drop to 140.
Is expected to ductile iron shipments will be reduced by 0.
2007 6% to 951,000 tons
Long-term losses of 1% per year.
In the long run, steel castings may drop to 55,000 tons in 2007 and drop at a rate of 7% per year.
The weight of aluminum castings for each light vehicle is increased to 260.
Casting shipments are expected to increase by 2. 3% to 1.
4 million tons, another 1 in 2007.
It was 6 million tons by 2016.
The diesel engine market for internal combustion engines consumes 90% of the gray iron and ball iron pieces shipped in this classification.
The small gasoline consumed 90% of the aluminum castings shipped. Forecast--
Shipments of gray iron castings are expected to decline again from 440,000 tons to 408,000 tons and continue to decline at a rate of 1 ton per year.
Imports increased by 6% per cent.
It is predicted that the shipment of cast iron will be reduced from 112,000 tons in 2006 to 104,000 tons in 2007.
Nevertheless, in the short and long term, the transformation of gray iron, steel and wrought cast iron to cast iron has contributed to some growth.
Steel Castings shipments in the turbine and turbine generator industries are expected to grow at a rate of 0 per year.
From 6% to 19,000 tons in 2016, it peaked at 2008 tons in 2007.
Internal combustion engine aluminum casting is expected to increase 0.
Between 7% and 2016, 140,000 tons per year.
By 2008, the aluminum die casting will reach 194,000 tons.
After a decline of 4% in 2006, farm machinery sales are expected to grow by \"2% in 2007 and make the long-termTerm income of 1. 5% annually. Forecast--
In addition to engine castings, shipments of gray iron castings are expected to decrease from 310,000 tons in 2006 to 250,000 tons in 2016, in the short term
The deadline for 2008 fell to 293,000.
It is expected that the ball iron will continue to replace Gray Iron, wrought iron and steel to achieve short
7 period growth.
7% to 2008 and long term
The term of office increased by 1. 4%.
Shipments of construction machinery and equipment are expected to increase by 2.
By 2016, 8% per year, of which 2.
Growth of 3% by 2008. Forecast--
In 2007, the shipment of gray iron castings may reach 262,000 tons, and in the long run, the speed of the transition to ball iron parts may be very low.
It is expected that the shipment of iron parts will increase by 1. 8%)
From 2007 to 2008, it was 225,000 tons.
It is predicted that the consumption of steel castings will decline at a rate of 0 per year.
6% due to the replacement of ferrite ball iron.
Due to the increase in mine production and the increase in mine machinery exports, shipments of mine machinery and equipment are expected to increase by 3% in 2007. Forecast--
Shipments of steel castings rose slightly in 2006;
However, due to the loss of imports and other materials and manufacturing applications, shipments in 2007 will remain at 114,000 tons.
Oil prices continue to rise, oil field equipment demand continues to rise.
It is expected to grow by 3% per cent in 2007 and more in subsequent years. Forecast--
It is predicted that shipments of cast iron will increase by 3.
In 2007, it was 5% per cent, with an average annual growth rate of 2% per cent.
Shortage of steel castings is expected
The term grew by 2% per cent, but fell by 2% per year by 2016.
Shipments of industrial valves for valves and fittings are estimated to have increased by 3.
2005 for 5% 2006 for 2%.
Growth is expected to be 3% per cent in 2007. Forecast--
Gray iron valve castings are expected to decrease from 282,000 tons in 2006 to 266,000 tons in 2016. A short-term rise of 5.
By 2008, 6% of the goods are expected to be cast iron, followed by a long term
The term of office increased by 0. 2%.
It is predicted that shipments of forged cast iron will be reduced from 36,000 tons in 2006 to 25,000 tons in 2016.
With the increase in imports and the conversion to ball iron parts, steel castings will drop significantly by 18% in the next 10 years. A 1.
Copper is expected to grow 9% over the next two years
Although more than 30,000 tons have been imported, there are still basic castings.
Pressure pipeline prediction-
Cast iron shipments may increase from 2.
2006 26 million tons to 2.
36 million tons in 2016.
The replacement of plastic pipes continues to hurt the growth of iron shipments.
Despite the loss of plastic pipes, the four largest plastic pipe companies in the United StatesS.
Due to the increase in construction activities, producers are expected to have a year of growth.
After five years of steady decline, the metal processing machinery industry rebounded slightly in 2005, up 5%.
5% growth is expected in 2007
Short-term forecasts of 2% per year. Forecast--
Consumption of gray steel, ball Iron and Steel Castings has declined and is expected to remain low.
Manual tool prediction--
The market for electric tools is still a growing market.
Aluminum die casting is expected to increase by 3.
In 2007, it was 2% tons, and the number of sand and permanent aluminum castings increased to 14,000 tons per year.
Magnesium Casting usage is expected to increase to 13,000 tons in 2007.
The annual average weighted growth rate of machinery used in the packaging, food, paper, printing and textile industries of special industrial machinery is expected to be 2.
3% per year by 2016. Forecast--A short-
Period growth of 4.
It is predicted that gray iron castings will reach 5% to 230,000 tons by 2008.
Shipments of cast iron castings are expected to increase by 4.
From 2006 to 2008, it was 5% to 117,000 tons. A short-
The period of 5 growth.
The production of stainless steel castings is expected to be 6% to 19,000 tons in 2008.
Heat-resistant steel castings are expected to grow by 12.
Between 5% and 9,000 tons by 2008.
Demand for pumps and compressors in road construction, bridge maintenance and public works increased in 2006.
The growth of oilfield equipment has stimulated recent casting growth. Forecast--
It is expected that gray iron castings will increase by 4.
Between 2% and 2008, it was 255,000 tons.
The average annual growth rate of iron pieces will reach 1.
5% per year and 8.
2006 to 2008 growth 2%.
Carbon steel and low alloy steel castings are expected to increase by 5.
From 4% to 2008, the corrosion-resistant pump increased by 5. 5%.
Prediction of gear, gear change and power transmission equipment--A 1.
Over time, 7% of gray iron shipments are expected to increase by 2007
The term growth rate is 0.
Due to import loss and conversion of some plastic and cast iron, 4% loss per year.
It is predicted that the shipment of iron parts will increase to 30,000 tons in 2007 and 32,000 tons in the next two years.
Refrigeration, air conditioning and heating equipment in the United States. S.
Is the main exporter of the equipment, the industry is expected to continue to grow
In 2007, the dollar rose 3% due to the recovery of the real estate market. Forecast--
Gray Iron shipments in 2007 are expected to grow by 5% over time
The period is reduced by 0. 2% per year.
Cast iron shipments are expected to increase by 8% to 43,000 tons from 2006 to 2008.
Aluminum die castings account for about 80% of total aluminum usage and are expected to increase to 46,000 tons in 2007.
Constant electrical equipment
In the long run, shipments in the automotive and generator industries are expected to grow by 2% annually. Forecast--
The use of gray iron may continue to decline and is expected to drop to 38,000 tons by 2016.
Aluminum die castings are expected to increase to 38,000 tons by 2008, and zinc and lead die castings are expected to increase to 36,000 tons in 2007, but according to the conversion to plastics, it will drop to 31,000 tons in the next few years.
The growth in housing starts is expected to stimulate the growth of household appliance production. Forecast--
Shipments of gray iron castings may decline.
Plastic and aluminum lose 8% a year.
Aluminum production will increase to 76,000 tons in 2007 and continue to grow to 78,000 tons in 2008.
Railway freight vehicle deliveries have grown steadily since 2002, reaching 75,000 vehicles in 2006.
This total is expected to fall to 62,000 per cent in 2007 and will continue to approach this figure in 2008. Forecast--
It is predicted that iron and steel railway castings will increase to 758,000 tons in 2006, but will drop to 578,000 tons by 2008.
Imports were estimated to account for 22% of demand in 2007.
Long instrument SA
Engineering and Scientific Instruments, measuring and controlling instruments, optical and analytical instruments and photographic equipment are expected to grow by 3% per year. Forecast--
Aluminum castings are expected to increase from 125,000 tons in 2006 to 144,000 tons in 2016, a 1.
Annual growth of 4%.
This paper is adapted from the 2007 AFS metal casting forecast and Trend Report.
For more information, please contact the AFS Special Publication at 800/537-4237 or www. afsinc. org/estore.
For more information, see cast sales forecast for \"08\" K up 14%.
Ke Jin, modern casting, January 200620.
Non-ferrous metal casting ShipmentsKen Kirgin, Stratecasts Inc. Ft.
It is predicted that shipments of black castings from Myers, FloridaFerrous Casting will be reduced by 1. 2% to 11.
It was 1 million tons in 2007, and another 47,000 tons were lost by 2008.
Sales are expected to increase to more than $16.
It was $6 billion and $18 in 2007.
7 billion to 2016.
Gray iron gray iron castings are expected to increase shipments by only 88,000 tons from 2003 to 2006;
* Down 1% to 4.
Shipments in 2007 were 73 million tons
The period decreased by 0. 8%; * rise to $5.
Sales in 2007 were 3 billion.
The prediction of the iron ball is: * 0.
Shipments in 2007 were 8% to 4,808,000 tons; * Increase to 4.
Shipment of 83 million tons in 2008; * grow 0.
Shipment of 5% pieces per year as of 2016; * rise to $6.
Sales of 7 billion.
Steel castings are expected to be reduced by 8.
Shipments in 2007 were 5%;
* Shipments are down at a rate of 2% per year over the next 10 years.
Shipments of non-ferrous metal castings are expected to grow at a rate of 1 per year.
Between 2% and 2016, it was 3,593,000 tons.
Foundry sales are expected to grow from $14.
It was $6 billion in 2006.
2016 2 billion.
Aluminum castings in the United StatesS.
Expected: * Growth 2.
Shipments in 2007 were 2% to 2,388,000 tons; * rise 4.
Shipments as at 2008 were 5%;
* Shipments increased to 2,714 tons by 2016; * rise to $11.
Sales in 2007 were 2 billion and capacity utilization increased to 84%. Copper-
Base made of brass, bronze and other copper-
Base alloys are expected to increase by 2% in shipments in 2007;
* An increase of 16,000 tons by 2008--a 4. 9% increase;
* Decline at an average annual rate of 0.
Shipments as at 2016 were 6%. A 50-
Ken kekin, a veteran of the metal foundry industry, founded Stratecasts Inc.
Domestic and international forecasts and trend analysis and strategic planning were provided in early 1980.
Capacity utilization since 1955, many technical and economic factors have led to a major shift in the metal casting industry, when the United States operated 6,150 metal casting facilitiesS.
It is estimated that the number of facilities in the industry will be reduced to 2,190 in 2007, of which 80% will have fewer than 100 employees.
Some of the new and expanded facilities have emerged in recent years, but the failed casting supply of 1 million tons is also expected to occur in 2007. 2001.
Table A shows the predicted capacity and utilization for 2007. A total of 2.
The remaining supply is expected to be 2 million tons.