Shanghai industrial aluminum years is expected to exceed 20000 yuan/ton

by:AAG     2020-11-07

Shanghai industrial aluminum years is expected to exceed 20000 yuan/ton mark futures daily reported on August 10: aluminum electrolytic industry to capacity into deep waters, superposition of winter limit production expected, industrial aluminum price during the year is expected to exceed 20000 yuan/ton. To further speed up according to the project of the rectification of electrolytic aluminum industry violation special operation work plan arrangement, aluminum electrolytic industry supply side into the special selectiving examination reform at present stage, due to be completed before September 15, and the final phases of the supervise and urge the rectification will be due on October 15. Despite a month before the deadline, and the illegal production capacity is relatively concentrated areas such as shandong, xinjiang has the first act, relevant enterprises violations to change will further accelerate the pace of capacity, capacity to change will be more firmly, supply side reform already in deep waters. At present domestic aluminum electrolytic industry compliance capacity in 36 million & ndash; 37 million tons, violate compasses capacity 9 million & ndash; 10 million tons. According to our statistics, after deducting already shut down illegal capacity, more than 4. 5 million tons of irregularities in production capacity, now account for 12% in production capacity, production capacity will be shut down in succession, in the late future supply contract is still expected to continue fermentation. Winter environmental restricting output or more than expected on February 20, 2017, ministry of environmental protection issued by the general office of the 'beijing-tianjin-hebei and surrounding areas for the control of air pollution in 2017 work plan' made clear that around the heating season to leak more than 30% of industrial aluminum electrolysis. , according to Aladdin April & other; 2 + 26' ( Winter limit production) Scheme involved in the production capacity of 13. 78 million tons, affect the production capacity of about 3. 2 million tons, the theory of heating season production is 1. 06 million tons, equivalent to 2017 to 410000 tons. Considering the electrolyser restart cost is higher, and & other; 2 + 26' In their production of industrial aluminum oxide and carbon related areas will be further restricted aluminum electrolytic industry production release, if we think & other; 2 + 26' Scheme can strictly enforced, and eventually will affect the production of aluminum electrolytic industry big probability estimates of more than 1. 06 million tons, or to continue the bulls. Global supply continued to expand the global original industrial aluminum demand in 2017 is forecast to rise 4% & ndash; 5%, China as the world's largest primary industrial aluminum consumption, industrial aluminum demand growth this year will fall, but overall still will grow by about 7%. Domestic industrial aluminum and aluminum automotive industry accounts for more than 50%. Stronger-than-expected housing market in the first half of this year, and the auto industry to maintain a higher level of production and marketing, superposition and industrial aluminum body industrial aluminum furniture new demand growth point, that the original industrial aluminum demand is expected to maintain steady growth in the future. From the supply side, although the present domestic aluminum electrolytic industry supply a small surplus, but present the short supply overseas markets in recent years, in addition to China needs to export more than 4 million tons each year to fill the gap, still need to consume nearly 1 million tons of LME inventories. With the implementation of the reform of domestic supply side, violations of capacity sharply reduce the number of force closures will be made, the domestic oversupply situation will be improved quickly, in the fourth quarter is expected to reach the balance between supply and demand, and global supply gap will enlarge further, according to the IAI etc, expects 2018 global supply shortages will be around 4 million tons. To sum up, in aluminum electrolysis industry supply side reform policy support, the pattern of industrial aluminum prices will remain strong, refer to the last year, steel, coal supply side reform process, we think the price of aluminum electrolytic industry at present is in the rising trend, in the middle of the urge on October 15 deadline for rectification, is expected to hit 18000 yuan/ton; At the end of the year in the winter limit production and environmental factors such as cooperation, industrial aluminum price is expected to break through 20000 yuan/ton.
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