AAG

Quarter of electrolytic aluminium production negative earnings recovery was slow | | industry information

by:AAG     2020-11-09


in the first quarter of electrolytic aluminium production fell 3% year on year to 745 tons; In march of electrolytic aluminum production of about 2. 48 million tons, a 2 month-on-month flat. Alumina production 13. 52 million tons in the first quarter, year-on-year decline 3 last year. 2%. Under the background of the exchange rate stabilization 1 quarter, rapidly rising to 7 March Shanghai comparison. 8 high suggests domestic supply and demand structure more nervous. Although aluminium 1 9 quarter-on-quarter rise. 2%, but the alumina from rose 17. 6%, largely offset by electrolytic aluminium prices rebound to the electrolytic aluminium enterprise profit improvement. In the first half of the electrolytic aluminium production less pressure on March the electrolytic aluminium production capacity of 34 million tons, not affected by the production in the first quarter of electrolytic aluminium production capacity of 87 years. 6%; Alumina production capacity of 60 million tons, in the first quarter of alumina production capacity to 90. 1%. Currently has a production plan with electrolytic aluminium production capacity of 690000 tons, below market expectations, we think the current electrolytic aluminium production slowly there are mainly three reasons: the government support will be limited, of bank lending cautious in industries with excess capacity, and the current aluminum prices give high production capacity and production cost & other; Margin of safety & throughout; Inadequate. Consider electrolytic aluminium production need 1 ~ 2 months time, the new production capacity needs in the second half to gradually reaches producing, is expected in the first half of the electrolytic aluminium production increase will be very limited. For alumina, think because of the relatively balance between supply and demand, price will be in the range of 1900 ~ 2200 yuan/ton, more difficult to appear in October last year price 1600 yuan/tons of extreme levels. Positive demand, expected the Chinese demand growth rate up to 5. Real estate investment 2% 1 quarter rebound obviously. Real estate investment development completed amount accumulative total rose before March 6. There were signs of accelerating 2%, real estate investment activities. Output of 6. 68 million cars 1 quarter, year-on-year growth of 6 last year. 5%, sales of 6. 52 million cars, year-on-year growth of 6 last year. 0%, show the pattern of supply and demand two prosperous. Downstream feedback from actual conditions, automobile, light rail traffic demand is strong with aluminum plate, aluminum foil. Is expected to China's electrolytic aluminum demand growth this year of about 5. 2%, the supply of aluminium growth is about 4. 3%, the domestic supply and demand balance of weak state. Traffic monitoring, the current tight supply and demand structure of 1-2016 In February, domestic alumina + imported for a total of 9. 91 million tons of alumina rose 7. 5%. 4. 55 million tons of electrolytic aluminium production, year-on-year decline in 2. 0%, 8. 04 million tons of aluminum production, year-on-year growth of 16. 0%. Think, aluminum rose rapidly reflect the electrolytic aluminium downstream demand, will have positive influence on electrolytic aluminium link to inventory, and electrolytic aluminum prices have not yet reached & other; Throughout production incentive price &; Aluminium, so short time can still maintain the rise. ( Changjiang securities)
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