On August 9, China merchants futures: early evaluation of non-ferrous metal

by:AAG     2020-11-07

China merchants futures: on August 9, early evaluation of non-ferrous metal copper: Shanghai discount 30, guangdong 25 litres of water. Copper supply and demand fundamentals environment is good, at present stage support prices strong run, prices are expected to continue to go up in the 3 quarter. In addition smelter traders especially downstream aluminum manufacturers inventories are low, rising will lead to downstream inventory. After late to pay attention to the rise of PPI conduction to the CPI, national policy on real estate and macro funds would tighten further. Operation, on line more than single continue hold, short note callback risk. Views are for reference only: aluminum electrolytic aluminum production in July, 3. 12 million tons, rose 16. 5% ( On June 20 year-on-year growth. 2%) , slowed, and the operation capacity from June to reduce nearly 900000 tons, the current reform of the supply side is expected to more than expected yields and a stronger than expected, closing speed eia strength continuously strengthen, although consumer has not yet entered the busy season, under the background of high inventory innovation, market for inventory inflection point is expected, the message continued fermentation long thick atmosphere, and the north peak production or in the fourth quarter will continue to catalytic, short-term upward momentum. Operating advice, short more than continue hold, buy on dips. Views are for reference only. Zinc: the negative expectations failed to deliver, zinc continue to fix up. In the short term domestic zinc and smelter is still difficult to see a significant increase possibility of supply, and demand is booming, continue to digest inventory, supporting a strong run zinc prices. Operation recommendations to buy domestic empty Aaron zinc continue hold, unilateral watching or lighter than held constant. Nickel: jinchuan litres of 1400 yuan/ton, the Russian nickel discount 200 yuan/ton, the import window closes, the market clinch a deal. Short-term two factors affect the price of nickel, nickel 1709 aluminium alloy profile is a Shanghai contract holdings continued to decline, the second is the downstream stainless steel tank parts inventory accumulation has been completed. Results of the rebound and the positive feedback is the profit of the industry is opened entirely, and the subsequent supply pressure expectations alive. Wait-and-see mainly on the operation, activist investors try to empty single, pay attention to the stop loss, nickel risk point lies in the Shanghai warehouse receipt continues to fall, view for reference.
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