Maike: futures inventory increase continuously, focus on Shanghai copper support

by:AAG     2020-11-08

on Wednesday, U. S. stocks rose again, the three major stock indexes are to return to an all-time high, strong unceasingly. After July U. S. jobs gap small increase record again, highlight the job market recovery, weaker than expected, plus PPI increase interest rates expected later, U. S. stocks strong pattern does not change. The recent optimism in world financial markets but cautious basic judgment remains the same in the fourth quarter, commodity markets have a correction. Copper stock fund is falling, London was increased by more than twenty thousand tons, driving copper prices fell to $6550 a line, and overnight position soared to more than 350000 hand, increased holdings is scarce, and admission or short shorts. Stock return confirm before suspected that traders through handling inventory up copper, achieved after inventory flow exchange, middle end of the rally, prices into the adjustment. Spot, the downstream consumption yoy since September, environmental restrictions caused copper scrap imports, domestic stock fell modestly, import the window open. After continuous rapid fall, 4040 kinds of electrical copper aluminum narrowing to 6300 yuan, copper scrap defensive obviously, support factors began to reflect. Because the current copper price back to a month ago, is expected to attract downstream to buy goods and price. In London, the mid to late August fast is raising more funds and the influence of the speculative traders buy, since this year inventory from more than ten thousand tons to ten thousand tons of more than 20 flow has three times repeatedly, this is likely to go through a continuous stock rebound. Fundamentals, Chinese consumption picks up, increased imports and concentrate processing fee before negotiating hype supply shortage will be phased in October 9,, is the dips replenishment demand downstream, and huge fund net long positions also makes it has the ability to maintain the price. 4040 aluminum extrusion technology, control the rise in the fourth quarter of last year, strong surge after the callback support at 0. A 618 - bit. The copper callback support area in 6400 dollars, in Shanghai in 50500 yuan, combined with long-term form, 5 square table is the strong support area. Current prices tumbled at this point, there is a short-term rebound, but the central point of view, the rally is over, will enter a longer range adjustment, suggest downstream the dips to buy goods or a small amount of the goods, and participates in speculative short-term rebound, admission line at present is not time. Another London zinc inventory also increased, but Aaron zinc spot is to maintain smooth water. Zinc inventory remains down for years, and now have fallen to more than ten thousand tons of low, the existence of a shipper think the absolute price has been high and the possibility of selling shadow inventory. Focus on inventories holdings and the change of the backwardation. Although visible from the current inventory and production situation, the current gap in a long time to maintain, 4040 aluminum but focus on the influence of the stock return, the bulls should be cautious. Technically in a 24000 - for the time being The 26000 range. Stocks: stocks rise, a strong unceasingly crude oil: rose, weather short-term disorderly movements, but support significantly below $: edged up, continue to plunge after rebound copper: 51300 - 50500, fell into the strong support area, buy the dips short aluminum: 16600 - 16400, distributed hype block to fall, but huge amounts of inventory, shock rise gradually, gradually callback with zinc, 24900 - 24700, backwardation high limit to fall, gradually buy the dips
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