Macro to suppress market price support is still strong

by:AAG     2020-11-08

a, this week's news and market performance last week, the Shanghai aluminum market week ahead of their production was introduced in jiaozuo, Shanghai high aluminum, and reached a high of 17250 yuan/ton. But after the fed's decision table, s&p downgrade the sovereign credit rating and other macro environment under the influence of weakening, commodity market slump, the Shanghai aluminum also continues to fall sharply, Friday at about 16300 yuan/ton stabilize rebound slightly. Last week oxygen aluminum prices continue to strengthen, above the national average price of 3500 yuan/ton, the overall market has continued to maintain a strong, short-term strength still is expected to last. Inventory stock aspect, the SMM statistics of domestic electrolytic aluminium society, 30 in Shanghai area. 67, 70000 tons of wuxi area. 9 90000 tons of automated assembly line, hangzhou area. 12, 30000 tons of gongyi area. 5, 00000 tons of tianjin. 40000 tons, 2 in chongqing. Seven to 90000 tons, aluminum ingots inventory amounted to 166. 30000 tons, from 2 last week. 10000 tons. Last week on the aluminium inventories 7122 tons to 542752 tons. But I colored net data, according to the national bar stock 22 last week. 0 drop in compared to 60000 tons, a week before. 90000 tons. Overall, the domestic high inventory is still slightly rebounded. Environmental limit production, according to my colored network research, the heating period of 26 + 2 + 3 limit production output in advance execution, jiaozuo ten thousand square aluminium 21 production, involving the production capacity of 140000 tons, is currently operating capacity of 430000 tons. SMM understand zhongfu industry to electrolytic aluminium enterprises plan synchronous restricting output 30% on November 15, form a complete set of carbon enterprise also is in accordance with the requirements of policy restricting output 50% on November 15, is still remain unchanged. The SMM understand, due to the weiqiao aluminium factory production, aluminum processing enterprise around the water supply are affected by the same degree, which buy weiqiao aluminum water before a aluminium rolling enterprise to SMM, said the company has purchased 30000 metric tons of aluminum ingots for library, have stopped working with weiqiao aluminum water. New capacity aspect, I colored network research, yunnan wenshan aluminium phase ii 600000 tons of alumina has been put into production, the product at the end of September, October, put into production. Guangxi wally new material plan on September 25, electricity, involving the electrolytic aluminium production capacity of 400000 tons. Qinghai xin heng plan in October new electrolytic aluminium production capacity of 100000 tons, the current run of 150000 tons, after the completion of the automated assembly line production of 250000 tons. In addition, according to 'issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology about some serious overcapacity industry capacity replacement measures notice ( The ministry of industry [2015] no. 127) Requirements, the three companies such as sanmenxia tianyuan aluminium co. , LTD. 70000 tons of electrolytic aluminum projects capacity, transfer capacity indicators across the country. On average, alumina prices continued to rise last week, this week are expected to still give priority to with strong, automated assembly line for aluminum costs continue to increase, short-term emotional support prices. But in domestic aluminum stocks continue to modestly, high long expected, there is no the inventory this week to continue to focus on the inventory dynamic. On the whole, the cost of electrolytic aluminium prices continue to be the raw material rising and heating season limit production support, still give priority to with strong shocks. Major risk is from the macro in the face of the economic pessimism, but last Friday. On the medium to long term, we continue to maintain the shock's point of view, the more the fourth quarter of transportation and inventory may fall to support prices. Recommended temporary stay, waiting for light warehouse near six thousand try many opportunities.
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