Lu card futures: August 16, early evaluation of non-ferrous metal
aluminum: 15, the Yangtze river up 40 liters of 25, 14190 south store 14180 rose 20; Overnight in Shanghai aluminum small shocks, LME aluminum shocks, main Shanghai aluminum rose 20, 1910 to 14240 the LME aluminium close at 1785 rose 0. 5. Macro aspect, China will be retaliatory tariffs on us $300 billion; Beauty at the beginning of July retail, please better-than-expected unemployment, but two - and 10-year Treasury yields continued to upside down, the economic recession fears and rise in risk aversion. Terms of fundamentals, China hongqiao in response to the flood of aluminum production is affected; Mega enterprise production, the production of alumina, such as the recent larger cumulative production, maintenance and supply has appeared gap; Profits have repaired, the electrolytic aluminium companies and put into operation recently, 8 quantity in larger scale, but the middle mismatch between supply and demand to make to stock will still be expected to prop up, and in the fourth quarter of production schedule will not exceeding the expectation '; 15 SMM aluminum inventory at 105. 10000 tons, from Thursday an increase of 10000 tons; July aluminium and aluminium exports 48 not forged. In June, 70000 tons, exports to 50. , 60000 tons of aluminum exports. Logic: the complication of a trade war with China and bilateral economic downward pressure increase, the market risk aversion, investors on positive emotions; Aluminum market off-season inventory is limited, support the mid-term inventory to change, but the price of alumina tumbled, profits have to repair the aluminum plant, aluminium upside is limited; Short-term weiqiao flood accident influence is unknown, or reinforce the inventory to mid, expected short-term shocks strong. Strategy: on the sidelines or short on dips. Copper: Shanghai on August 15, electrolytic copper spot for that month futures at premium 30 ~ 60 yuan/ton, premium smooth water copper clinch a deal the price 46600 yuan/ton to 46670 yuan/ton, copper increased by 175 tons to 76381 tons of the previous period. State General Administration of Customs, China's imports of copper ore and concentrate in July of 207. 40000 tons, Chinese imports of copper ore and concentrate in the first seven months of the year for 1262. 10000 tons, rose 10. 8%; In July China imported copper and copper 42 not forged. 00000 tons. In the first seven months of this year China's imports of copper and copper not forged 269. 10000 tons, reduce compared to 11. 7%. Chile's state copper committee: Codelco copper production was falling over the same period last year 12 for the first half of this year. By 1% to 76. 90000 tons. Glencore's zambian company shut down two copper mine shaft. 1 - Congo's copper production rose 12 June. By 5% to 67. 20000 tons. Logic: copper supply tight but a downside risks of the global economy is in, Shanghai copper and dilemma. Strategy: wait for the time being.