AAG

Investment essence futures: on July 31, early evaluation of non-ferrous metal

by:AAG     2020-11-07


zinc, shortage of fundamental change, influence temporarily imported goods the arrival of the goods into the weak period, but there will still be part of a large number of the arrival of the goods is expected late effects, zinc ingot prices, the downstream galvanized sheet with higher prices. The rise in prices or associated with macroeconomic policies in the second half of the relatively loose, is expected to price fall, suggest that bull underweight. From the fundamental data, social inventory fluctuations near 120000 tons, the bonded area inventory fell slightly less than 90000 tons, and the galvanized factory production scheduling is good, after calculating profit is good. From yesterday's top 20 holdings data, the main focus on the short, but the exchange of the warehouse receipt with short positions tonnage differs greatly, crowded warehouse structure is still there. Within the last week prices downward wave, down to below 20 daily average lines, price or into shock interval, suggested long positions in reduction. Import data from zinc ingot in June, rose to 35. 3%. Aluminum galvanized factory operating rate is 71. 59% for consumption change. Clinch a deal the galvanized products prices, the market is weak. But in the first half of the macro data, consumer and no obvious slowdown. In the first half of glencore's zinc production is 57. 080000 tons, up 13% from a year earlier, mainly due to Ann's mining production and the entire portfolio. In the first half of the production of 26 teck resources. 50000 tons of zinc concentrate, year-on-year decline in 18. 7%. Zinc is expected in the short term price of high and volatile pattern. Zinc LME discount $9, relatively narrow 4 yesterday. $25, the LME inventories, 325 tons, 265975 tons. Aluminium city area, xinjiang, shandong region basic production is completed. From night trends, price soared after back, suggest that bull underweight. Market continue to wait for Inner Mongolia, Inner Mongolia aluminium violations in capacity of 1 million tons, the fundamentals still excess, but the policy surface strength, market bulls expected remains strong, long-short game increasingly fierce, the price into the sideways range. Politburo meeting requirements well implement a proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, to ensure steady economic healthy development. Main contract has experienced a wave of high fall, from 14570 to 14330, prices fell below 20 daily average lines, but because of the reform is still in the supply side, risk preference or try to bargain. July official today focus on China manufacturing PMI, the euro zone's unemployment rate in June, July is not seasonally adjusted the CPI rate and the pending home sales month after 6 Chinese rose adjustable rate. The LME aluminium discount 22. $5, relatively narrow 1 yesterday. $25. LME inventories to reduce 5975 tons, 1361900 tons. Nickel, acquisition of nickel strong trend continued high last week, the spot, the LME nickel discount the whole last week have narrowed significantly, inventory reduced from 1704 to 374478 tons, domestic stocks continue to drop by 2673 to 68700 tons of the previous period, Russian nickel premium, spot market will increase in goods. In the first half of the global nickel production tightening is relatively obvious, the domestic nickel plate stocks continued to fall, superposition stainless steel prices higher, nickel prices strong performance. But in the current market, port nickel price rebounded, the Philippines and Indonesia mining shipment will increase is expected to aluminum alloy profiles, domestic nickel iron prices rising at the same time, some steel mills for purchasing price last week climbed to 900 yuan of above, nickel iron prices rebound strong or stimulate domestic nickel iron production. Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile, operation temporarily. Copper, acquisition of copper last week continues high and volatile, macro on the dollar index continued low to non-ferrous to boost the market. The spot, the LME copper discount narrowed to 29. Inventory last week, a total of $5, 6050 to 300575 tons, the previous period of copper inventories ZhiJiang rebound from 6009 to 178783 tons. Industry, Poland KGHM President said on Thursday that its Chile SierraGorda copper this year is expected to more than 100000 tons of copper production, year-on-year increase 6 last year. 38%. Domestic for last week banned the import of scrap metal message read too much affect market sentiment, as the message digest, the market return to rationality. Copper prices above the pressure is more apparent, short-term copper is expected to remain volatile, operating on temporary wait and see.
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