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Electrolytic aluminium violations capacity shut down one by one in 2018 aluminium market or shortages
aluminium violations capacity shut down one or a shortage of aluminium market 2018 industry media have reported recently, xinjiang region in violation of electrolytic aluminium profile manufacturer to shut down a new developments: xinjiang kayuen illegal production capacity of 150000 tons, involving about 120 units 500000, electrolytic cell, now and then there were 30 did not shut down, July 10 is expected to close them; Xinjiang east hope illegal production capacity of 800000 tons, involving about 540 units in 500000, electrolytic cell, has shut down 30 - On July 20, 40, plan all shut down. Xinjiang irregularities in the production and capacity under construction is expected to take the lead in clearing. According to our statistics, illegal construction in xinjiang production capacity of 2 million tons ( East hope 800000 tons/year in xinjiang, xinjiang 800000 tons/year ( Has built 400000 tons with sichuan index actual displacement 20000 tons of 380000 tons/year shut down) Kayuen, xinjiang 400000 tons/year) 。 The production capacity of 1. 07 million tons ( East hope 800000 tons/year in xinjiang, xinjiang kayuen 150000 tons/year, xinjiang tianlong 100000 tons/year and xinjiang 20000 tons/year) , April 14 once. during closed in violation of the people's government of course capacity. On April 26, xinjiang kayuen violations during the production began to close, and then there were 30 is due out on July 10. On July 1, xinjiang east hope in illegal capacity electrolytic cell (33 About 50000 tons/year) Shut down. We believe that the close and on June 20, shandong weiqiao, introduced the four ministries and commissions of the state is still April the rectification work project of electrolytic aluminium industry violation action plan demands June 30 places complete check point, the closure is in response to the plan. Reports have suggested that xinjiang changji autonomous prefecture, the government has asked the xinjiang kayuen and east hope running illegal capacity of xinjiang must stop everything before July 20. This week, three national environment and the relevant departments to xinjiang for inspectors to this matter. If the message is true, as three clusters of xinjiang China aluminium violations capacity under construction and the production capacity will be closed, electrolytic aluminium profile manufacturer to reduce 1. 07 million tons/year, and is low cost, full of more effective capacity. On July 20, we believe that xinjiang east hope complete probability is low, but illegal in production capacity will shut down one by one. Then the al balance: still no gap, but the relationship of supply and demand to accelerate the reverse. Based on SMM data in 2017, the national 46 million tons of electrolytic aluminium profiles manufacturers, production 36. 5 million tons, and demand is only 35. 07 million tons, 1. 43 million tons of excess. As to the latest, combined close in illegal production capacity of 470000 tons/year ( Shandong weiqiao 250000 tons/year, east hope 50000 tons/year in xinjiang, xinjiang kayuen 150000 tons/year, xinjiang 20000 tons/year) 23, annual production capacity. 50000 tons/year, according to 90% utilization, it affect the production of 210000 tons. If xinjiang east hope 800000 tons/year all closed, the annual output is expected to be 360000 tons, annual 570000 tons of electrolytic aluminium reduction. We believe that by the latest, shut down illegal construction capacity is still unable to change the pattern of the aluminium market supply exceeds demand. Demonstration significance obviously, and the shandong region of Inner Mongolia is expected to accelerate. According to our statistics, violations of Inner Mongolia in 1. 2 million tons/year ( Inner Mongolia chuangyuan 800000 tons/year, jin lian 400000 tons/year ( Originally 550000 tons/year in east China zhejiang quota replacement 150000 tons/year) ) 。 Shandong irregularities in the production capacity of 2. 67 million tons/year ( Shandong weiqiao 2. 05 million tons/year ( Eliminate the closed 250000 tons/year) , shandong xinfa 620000 tons/year) 。 We believe that if the clearing in xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and shandong area government and aluminum manufacturers pressure will increase, two areas electrolytic aluminium production capacity is about parking space. Even optimistic estimates half capacity replacement compliance by indicators, there will be 193. 50000 tons of production capacity facing closure. If violations in all closed in July, the annual output 72. 60000 tons, the total production throughout the year 129. 60000 tons. Aluminium market gradually return to balance in 2017, but 2018 aluminum demand for incremental project co. , LTD. , is still maintaining high growth, or there is shortage. With the experience of coal steel aluminium, this time really different. Chinese new electrolytic aluminium banned capacity can be traced back to 2003, but still contrarian in the electrolytic aluminium profile manufacturer, mainly due to some irregularities final project is approved by the government. But this really is not the same: 1, the calendar year of coal and iron and steel industry to implement the capacity is limited, but since last year the coal and steel industries to enforcement capacity is very big; 2, over the years are not appear a large number of closed irregularities in the electrolytic aluminium to capacity building and in the case of production capacity, but this has appeared; 3, on June 28, the ministry reaffirmed the central to a consistent attitude toward the reform of the supply side, must be strictly implemented. Follow-up prospects: 1, this is just the beginning, deserves more attention in September. We believe that the recent in shandong province and the xinjiang region closed in illegal production capacity for the province only check point is near, and the true peak capacity or the related parts of the country on September 15 special spot. Refer to the ministry and other relevant departments of the special spot checks for steel and coal, efforts will be very large. November 2, aluminum heating season production more than 30% will be good, often we think, 2 + 26 city heating season in November to march, the basic duration of 4 months, affect the output of around 1. 5 million tons, will also be good aluminum industry.