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Electrolytic aluminium: plus ca change down premature | | industry information
chinalco webex prices again this week for a correction, I know, there are many factors that lead to falling: the macro is somewhat pessimistic, to later production capacity increase are expected, the arbitrage capital operation, etc. , the market formed a long short can't play, a profound. The author believes that it is premature to pessimistic view aluminum market. One still has fallen dramatically, inventory, aluminum ingots inventory this week are expected to drop to 500000 tons, despite the arrival of the south China market increase, but the whole still down nearly 8000 tons. At the same time, we research the smelter, most enterprises zero inventory. Second, the high spot premiums to clinch a deal. Although prices down, but regional clinch a deal the sustained high premium, downstream is not because of falling prices and too much on the sidelines, but as the spot grew more nervous, fear of late to buy the arrival of the goods. Third, market worries about increased supply is a bit too radical. From the point of survey data, the new production capacity, production time will be mainly in the third quarter, after years production contribution is limited, more will be reflected in 2017. Production in the third quarter increased will lead to the supply of fourth quarter rose, but the production schedule are generally more slowly than new production, enterprise production mainly reference prices at the same time, if the price fell to 12000 yuan/ton or less, aluminum plant and production enthusiasm will hit, it is understood that the baise yinhai rehabilitation plan has been postponed to the fourth quarter. Four, the cost is slightly higher stability. Recently on the coal market research, shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and other regions of pithead prices rise, in all high quality coal prices have jumped highest of 40 yuan/ton. High alumina price stabilization, later will follow the movements of prices, did not see downward trend at present. And aluminum plant environmental costs significantly increased, the whole, there are still supporting cost of electrolytic aluminium. Five, the macro view, reform of the country at the same time to avoid a hard landing, has expressed support for some short-term stimulus. The author thinks that the basic face prices strong support to nearly a month of time in the future is more obvious, the high spot and futures premium form distort prices continued to fall, so the Shanghai aluminum even in the short term pessimistic atmosphere correction later there is still a rebound in demand, prices rise and fall should be decided by the structure of supply and demand of the market itself, the hype to short. Industrial aluminium profile.