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Electrolytic aluminium inventories inflection point when to appear?
in the near future due to illegal capacity situation gradually clear, under the background of aluminum ingots inventory record high, the market for inventory when turning point coming to discuss more and more, the author lists the following partial data and as a share of. First of all, the government asked electrolytic aluminium enterprises involved in illegal production capacity, SMM aluminium violate compasses operation capacity of 3. 63 million tons, known by the press, of which 2. 93 million tons of production capacity has been shut down in the near future, there is still a violation in production capacity 700000 tons. Assumes that all violations capacity in September 15 deadline to shut down, but can be included in the heating season within 30% of their production requirements, the production capacity for change to overlay heating season limit production makes aluminium output by around 1. 4 million tons, and for new capacity, the National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration, 16 departments jointly issued by the 'about promoting the supply side against and dissolving the opinions of the coal and electricity overcapacity risk of structural reforms, and published the provincial coal control scale, the provincial coal unit stopped and delayed list, part of the electrolytic aluminium production capacity matching new self-provided power plant in the list, so even with index of new capacity will also delay the production steps, SMM is expected by the end of 2017, electrolytic aluminium operation capacity will be 36. 7 million tons. Composite density electrolytic aluminium production this year is about 36. 5 million tons. And consumption, although in the first half of the electrolytic aluminum consumption forecast growth of 13% over the previous year, but in 78 consumption significantly weaker than the same period last year, the laboratory bench first is environmental protection supervision, resulting in a large number of small and medium-sized processing enterprises shut down, the second after entering in August due to Shanghai compare value back to the appreciation of the renminbi rose overlay leads to low aluminum exports month-on-month decline obviously, moreover the high price makes the end user order and order processing enterprises intend to two-way abate, and two terminal industry, from real estate and cars consumption growth and lackluster, after consideration of many factors, we expect full-year 2017 aluminium consumption growth is about 8. 5%, lab workbench annual demand is about 35. 2 million tons, considering the consumption ward, the whole inventory inflection point this year big probability will appear in late October, by the end of electrolytic aluminium social inventory level about 1. 45 million tons. But it is worth noting that the heating season limit production for the production of the electrolytic aluminum accessories pre-baked anode influence is bigger, according to the SMM, according to the heating season involves preparation anode production capacity of 11. 42 million tons, the completion of the operation capacity in 728. 20000 tons, the laboratory bench if calculated at 50% production line leak, 9 ~ 12 month national anode production of about 544. 20000 tons, considering the electrolysis plant should bring along their own inventory, available for 1229. 40000 tons of electrolytic aluminium is used, and according to our calculated during electrolytic aluminum production is about 11. 95 million tons, the laboratory bench single anode aluminum factory production of reversed transmission from the data in 2017 are much less likely, but considering the heating season will continue to limit production cycle in the middle of march, 2018, during the heating season anode big probability will be in short supply, and the anode electrolytic aluminium enterprises inventory once consumed, the future new capacity production schedule or will be limited.