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Domestic aluminum ingots inventory when bottom? Downstream demand how? | | industry information

by:AAG     2020-11-09

domestic electrolytic aluminum production in March of 253. 00000 tons, down 3% year on year, quarter of domestic electrolytic aluminium production for 736. 80000 tons, compared with the same reduced by 1. 9%. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production rebounded in March, annual operating capacity of about 24. 90000 tons, the production capacity mainly lie in xinfa electricity release of production capacity, at the same time including the qingtongxia, xinye, huangguoshu aluminium, shaanxi tongchuan aluminium production capacity contribution to yield in ascension. Enter since April, while the production release is still part of the production capacity increment, but compared to the same period of last year running an annual production capacity of 30. 94 million tons, domestic short-term hard to achieve the same period last year level, which can be expected, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production will remain negative growth in April. Although with the Shanghai aluminum prices and production speculation, but the actual selection and production of aluminum enterprises co. , LTD. , in the first half of the market supply will not increase obviously; Aluminum downstream consumption stability on the other hand, orders in good condition, aluminum ingots to inventory process, continuous aluminum market fundamentals seems to continue to support Shanghai aluminum prices upward run, medium-term target price 12500 yuan/ton. But as prices back to around 12000 yuan/ton, electrolytic aluminium enterprises profit levels, is expected to have a new batch of aluminum plant hedge positions, aluminium prices at 12000 yuan/ton integer will usher in short-term battle over and over again. Current market focused on the two problems, one is domestic aluminum ingots inventory when the bottom? 2 it is five to aluminium ingot inventory after reaching low market reaction? Concerned personage thinks, 4 - Downstream processing enterprises consumption may under steady state, the inventory will appear low in late may to early June, and production recovery compared to the same or will last until late June is expected to increase, this part yield of main increase the kinetic energy from the production and the release of new capacity. If late consumption remains strong, of course, to the inventory cycle could be more than 6 weeks. In the process of to inventory, prices will appear two obvious characteristics, on the one hand is cash discount greatly and cash discount is expected to be stable in the aluminum futures premium that month between 50 yuan/ton to smooth water level. To, on the other hand, in the process of the inventory, will produce sustained support of itself, price rise space interval could exceed market expectations.
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