Citic futures: inventory long-unseen decline aluminum market rally to maintain long situation

by:AAG     2020-11-08

1) Yesterday Shanghai aluminum market shocks all the way after opening higher, take back the day before, and continue to tear, closed up 4%, all day again rose to above 16500 yuan/ton. ( 2) According to the SMM research, there are still 100 - before the end of 2017 150 aluminum manufacturers aluminum production capacity of ten thousand tons of new stay put, would be added to the part of the supply side of the reform of market gap, influenced by aluminum processing consumption gradually recovery, domestic aluminum ingots from the excess to the balance of supply and demand, aluminum, or appear periodically to inventory phenomenon, at the same time should be alert to new capacity in the first quarter of next year after the release of production inventory. ( 3) SMM statistics of domestic electrolytic aluminium inventories ( Including the SHFE warehouse receipt) 29: Shanghai area. 66, 70000 tons of aluminum production factory in wuxi area. 9, 20000 tons of hangzhou area. 36, 00000 tons, the south China sea area. 11, 90000 tons of gongyi area. 5, 70000 tons of tianjin area. 2, 10000 tons of chongqing area. Seven to 30000 tons, aluminum ingots inventory amounted to 160. 90000 tons, from reduce 3 on Thursday. 20000 tons. ( 4) Henan province in 2017 - Industrial enterprises in the fall and winter of 2018 peak production plan ( Draft) , indicate the peak time for solution on November 15, 2017 to March 15, 2018, 13 home appliance solution smelter restricting output by more than 30%, respectively, in cell volume, with on-site supervision spot check to verify. 11 alumina enterprises restricting output by more than 30% respectively, aluminum manufacturers in the production line, with on-site supervision spot check to verify. Logic: the highs of social inventory a stranger and henan peak production limit production aluminum enterprise scale is slightly higher than expected, stimulating prices sharply higher low. Afternoon inventory sustainability will become the focus of market attention, short-term price remain high and volatile situation, the more the suggestion maintain wait-and-see pattern.
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