Cinda futures: August 16, early evaluation of non-ferrous metal

by:AAG     2020-11-08

cinda futures: August 16, early evaluation of non-ferrous metal copper: yesterday in Shanghai affected by outside dish opened lower after the shock, closed at 46580 yuan/ton. Since August a trade war with China over and over again, yesterday the us tariffs, lead to the global metals market prices, bad digestion, after shock stabilizing. In terms of fundamentals, TC weakness, frequent tightening message mine end, light, the downstream demand appears periodically tired library, weak market as a whole. At present stage rebound weakness, and weak demand of copper under pressure, influenced by macro bad, weak copper price. At present stage platform, operation is given priority to with watching, with average adhesive market direction. Aluminum: supply: start capacity slightly increased to 3615. 350000 tons; Cost side: alumina stabilizing, industry profit maintain a high level. Liter discount: backwardation, aluminum agio to expand to more than $30; Inventory: LME stocks slightly dropped to 98. 430000 tons, down by 1 of the previous period. 220000 tons to 39. 150000 tons, the social stock declined by 0. 20000 tons to 101. 50000 tons. Current progress in sino-us trade disputes become the main dominant macro environment variables, overnight officially announced about $300 billion since China imports tariffs by 10%, dragged down by global market preference, but in terms of electrolytic aluminum, subject to its commodity attribute dominant factors such as recent heavy rain in shandong province to boost the overall remain strong. The present, the domestic electrolytic aluminum recovered significantly stimulate new capacity on the expected profit, and the cost of alumina to touch the cut expectations, and inventory off-season was slow to change, also reveal the overall consumption of stabilization. Comprehensive, macro environment improving market risk appetite, but Shanghai aluminum recently because of the event driven or larger, continued to rise the kinetic energy is insufficient, the Shanghai compare value is expected to continue to narrow. Operational recommendations near 14200 yuan/ton empty single layout, target near to 13800 yuan/ton.
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