China merchants futures: on August 28, early evaluation of non-ferrous metal

by:AAG     2020-11-07

copper: Shanghai discount 05, guangdong 10 liters of water. For mine in recent TC stalemate that copper concentrate production not ideal to compression processing fee, but the domestic smelters based on the previous long single is not willing to accept low TC, to purchase cheap mixed ore. Look at both sides of the game, behind the thick copper reduction inevitable expected processing fee won't be higher. Domestic goods rebound, the recent environmental scrutiny and coal freight rise, such as industrial products remains strong. Is about to enter industrial production peak season, industrial stocks lower case, aluminum demand start price is expected to remain strong. Operation, on line more than single continue hold, short note callback risk. Views are for reference only: aluminum electrolytic aluminium production, reducing rein new capacity or will be the main melody of the future market. Limited due to the north ore supply alumina prices, lu: xingcai short-term is expected to last. Current electrolytic aluminium shut down an illegal capacity in an orderly way, Inner Mongolia also started to shut down illegal production capacity, supply side reform continues to advance, strict controls of new capacity is expected to enhance, eia strength continuously strengthen, although consumer has not yet entered the busy season, under the background of high inventory innovation, market for inventory forecast inflection point, and the market is at the end of the north peak production of continuous catalytic wrong, inertia rising short-term or existence, but years production surplus basic a foregone conclusion, go to the library or will delay time, message window period or a callback. Operating advice, buy on dips or watching. Views are for reference only. Zinc, zinc and zinc ingot production in July to continue than expected, according to zinc supply growth under environmental suppression is greater than the price in the future may face long-term supply the lack of momentum. Zinc processing stability trend, supply continuous aluminum showed that zinc, zinc ingots social inventory can't meet the peak season demand, low zinc backwardation continue to go up. Current industry chain assessment to see zinc or maintain easy up to down, short term warehouse adjustment co. , LTD. , etc. Operation suggestion list and set held constant. Nickel: short-term market game point lies in the downstream stainless steel link, the early rise logic is the terminal of the library, and the current spot market reservoir link is still tight, aluminum the persistent existing in the price of the aluminium market confidence back slowly and reservoir filling library when uncertainty, NPI and production and supply side has to be time, corresponding to the subsequent increase of short-term nickel or continue to strong trend, the current market inflection point lies in the inventory of stainless steel. Operating short-term single more caution on hold, view for reference.
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