Aluminum: support and inventory decline expected cost, downward price range is limited

by:AAG     2020-11-08

present the first Shanghai prices last week after magnified, since the 16780 yuan/ton fell on Wednesday to Friday night set minimum 16080 yuan/ton. Week by henan heating season policy limit production and inventory decline must boost prices rebound sharply, then the copper, zinc, black tie fell drag prices slowing, several important macro economic data released on Thursday showed a sharp slowdown in price decline. Clinch a deal cost monitoring: alumina mainstream last week sharply to 3310 yuan/ton. By shanxi environmental protection policy requirements during the 19 large bauxite limit expectations supply tight production, and domestic bauxite, alumina short-term surge in prices. At the same time considering the heating season pre-baked anode 50% limit production ( Environmental protection does not amount to mark all shut down) , leading to supply expected prices to be nervous, electrolytic aluminium costs rose sharply, weighted comprehensively the current electrolytic aluminium industry profits in the vicinity of 1500 yuan/ton, electrolytic aluminium industry profits continue to fall. As 9. 15th place verification deadline approaches, violations of capacity shut down has come to an end, aluminum as currently running an illegal production capacity of 3. 4 million tons, shut down 500000 tons capacity be shut down. The current capacity policy level from to has more difficult to appear more than expected. Ledo, only potential lies in the heating season limit production may be ahead of time and strength could strengthen their production, because for the first time this year due to the environmental quality problems to implement distributed heating season, if the ambient air quality index significantly make local governments will be under greater pressure from various aspects, in view of this situation may be in the process of execution covering will only strengthen rather than weaken as to policy of promoting capacity, production effect appeared gradually, the bureau of statistics data show that August primary aluminum production is 2. 64 million tons, year-on-year decline in 3. 7% in July, down about 50000 tons. 1 - Cumulative output growth also fell to 6 August. 1%. Current due to the production strictly enforce the production fell from substantial effect began to emerge. Short-term is early to consider under the policy is expected to push prices rose sharply, while the policy expected level driver basic failure, the inventory pressures on the spot is growing, it became a yoke suppress recent prices. Standing in the present policies are expected to drive out stage, late fermentation takes time, end up pressure to reduce inventory down, spot end, prices have to go back to the rally. Inventories last week fell for the first time in recent months, inflection point ahead of expected fermentation, by the stimulus prices, aluminum term spreads in recent months, significantly stronger. The current aluminum prices in addition to from insufficient inventory decline slowdown caused by the upward momentum, overly optimistic macro forecast because of all the important data slowed sharply expected to reverse the downward pressure should not be ignored, short-term price will continue to test by this drag on. Costs rose sharply, short-term or formation of aluminium must support: recent alumina prices continue to rise, a month 750 yuan/ton, directly cause electrolytic aluminium this rose 1500 yuan/tons, the recent pre-baked anode prices also rose sharply, to exceed 400 yuan/ton, lift the aluminium cost by 200 yuan/ton. Rose sharply from the cost, the price its driving force abated when a certain level of aluminum forming some sort of support strategy suggestion: as time goes on production began to emerge, the action of the production cuts in August primary aluminum production started to decline in a row, inventory also showed signs of a turning point in the early last week. Decline in inventory when the peak season demand marginal increase in consumption will determine the speed and range of price and term spreads the key to stronger. Short term comes from the macro is expected to take the downward pressure should not be ignored, but the inventory decline its inevitability and the cost of support makes it hard for aluminum prices have fallen sharply, suggest to fall back into the still more. Next week is expected to contract operation interval of 15800-1710 16300, the dips.
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